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Cybernetics is not just another branch of science. It is an intellectual revolution that rivals in importance the earlier Industrial Revolution.
Isacc Asimov, 1950
"Artificial intelligence began with an ambitious research agenda: To endow machines with some of the traits we value most highly in ourselves - the faculty of reason, skill in solving problems, creativity, the capacity to learn from experience....Fifty years later, problem-solving machines are a familiar presence in daily life.... In spite of these achievements, the status of artificial intelligence remains unsettled. We have many clever gadgets, but its not at all clear they add up to a thinking machine."
Brian Hayes, American Scientist (July/August, 2012).
Lapas uzbūve.
Nodaļā 'Sākums' dotas vispārējas ziņas par mākslīgo intelektu, kā arī aprakstīti Latvijas Mākslīgā intelekta fonda mērķi un uzdevumi. Šajā nodaļā:
1. Daži vispārīgi raksti par mākslīgā intelekta pētniecību pasaulē. Sasniegumi, problēmas un apšaubījumi.
2. Mums zināmās svarīgas interneta vietnes un žurnāli.
Nodaļu Neironu tīkli, Vēsture, Raksti, Grāmatas un Lekcijas beigās sakrāti senāk publicēti raksti, grāmatas un video ieraksti, bet nodaļas Diskusijas un Pielietojumi satur rakstus par dažādiem viedokļiem un AI pielietojumiem.
Pēdējā nodaļā Par mums paskaidrota Fonda dibināšanas ideja un ziņas par to, kā mūs atrast.
Šajā interneta lapā mēs ievietosim ne tikai rakstus un domas par mākslīgo intelektu, bet arī norādes uz zināšanu avotiem, kas ir nepieciešami inteliģentas pasaules izpratnes un dzīves izveidošanai. Mēs atbalstām un atzīstam par pareizu zināšanu izplatīšanu par velti. Jo zināšanas ir visvērtīgākā cilvēka esības komponente, vienīgā, kas nodrošinās cilvēces izdzīvošanu liela laika mērogā.
AI Overview
Exactly what the computer provides is the ability not to be rigid and unthinking but, rather, to behave conditionally. That is what it means to apply knowledge to action: It means to let the action taken reflect knowledge of the situation, to be sometimes this way, sometimes that, as appropriate...
In sum, technology can be controlled especially if it is saturated with intelligence to watch over how it goes, to keep accounts, to prevent errors, and to provide wisdom to each decision. --- Allen Newell, from Fairy Tales.
If you are looking for an answer to the question What is Artificial Intelligence? and you only have a minute, then here's the definition the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence offers on its home page: "the scientific understanding of the mechanisms underlying thought and intelligent behavior and their embodiment in machines."
The National Academy of Science offers the following short summary of the field: "One of the great aspirations of computer science has been to understand and emulate capabilities that we recognize as expressive of intelligence in humans. Research has addressed tasks ranging from our sensory interactions with the world (vision, speech, locomotion) to the cognitive (analysis, game playing, problem solving). This quest to understand human intelligence in all its forms also stimulates research whose results propagate back into the rest of computer science—for example, lists, search, and machine learning." From Section 6: Achieving Intelligenceof the 2004 report by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) Computer Science: Reflections on the Field, Reflections from the Field (2004).
However, if you are fortunate enough to have more than a minute, then please get ready to embark upon an exciting journey exploring AI (but beware, it could last a lifetime) . . .
We find ourselves at a crucial moment in Earth’s history. Like a boulder perched upon a mountain’s peak, we stand at an unstable point. We cannot stay where we are: AI is coming provided that scientific progress continues. Soon we will tumble down one side of the mountain or another to a stable resting place.
In which direction will you push on the boulder?
Our current limitations aren’t fixed by physics, but by the limits of our intelligence, and the resources that can be used at our current level of intelligence. With self-improving machine superintelligence acting on our behalf, our biological limits can be transcended.
Humans have always wanted more than what the universe gives us by default. We want to experience sounds that do not exist in nature, so we make music. We want to taste something more delicious than anything that would grow by itself, so we cook, and we develop cuisines. We want to explore worlds beyond the one in which we evolved, so we build ships, cars, planes, and spaceships to carry us off into distant lands. We invent literature, film, and art to experience the world from a different perspective.
We are, and have always been, engineering our own utopia. With superintelligence, we will have the opportunity to do it faster, better, and more completely than ever before. But only if we try. Only if we decide that utopia tomorrow is more important than slight improvements to our already rich lives today.
Luke Muehlhauser, http://facingthesingularity.com/
Open Problems in Artificial Life
Mark A. Bedau¤;†, John S. McCaskill‡, Norman H. Packard§, Steen Rasmussen¤¤, Chris Adami††, David G. Green‡‡, Takashi Ikegami§§, Kunihiko Kaneko¤¤¤, Thomas S. Ray†††
Abstract This article lists fourteen open problems in artificial life, each of which is a grand challenge requiring a major advance on a fundamental issue for its solution. Each problem is briefly explained, and, where deemed helpful, some promising paths to its solution are indicated.
A List of Open Problems
A. How does life arise from the nonliving?
1. Generate a molecular proto-organism in vitro.
2. Achieve the transition to life in an artificial chemistry in silico.
3. Determine whether fundamentally novel living organizations can exist.
4. Simulate a unicellular organism over its entire lifecycle.
5. Explain how rules and symbols are generated from physical dynamics in living systems.
B. What are the potentials and limits of living systems?
6. Determine what is inevitable in the open-ended evolution of life.
7. Determine minimal conditions for evolutionary transitions from specific to generic response systems.
8. Create a formal framework for synthesizing dynamical hierarchies at all scales.
9. Determine the predictability of evolutionary consequences of manipulating organisms and ecosystems.
10. Develop a theory of information processing, information flow, and information generation for evolving systems.
C. How is life related to mind, machines, and culture?
11. Demonstrate the emergence of intelligence and mind in an artificial living system.
12. Evaluate the influence of machines on the next major evolutionary transition of life.
13. Provide a quantitative model of the interplay between cultural and biological evolution.
14. Establish ethical principles for artificial life.
Mark A. Bedau is an American philosopher who works in the field of Artificial Life. He is the son of philosopher Hugo Adam Bedau.
Bedau teaches philosophy at Reed College. He is also the Co-Founder of the European Center for Living Technology (ECLT)[1] and Visiting Professor, Ph.D. Program in Life Sciences: Foundations and Ethics, European School of Molecular Medicine.[2] Bedau is also the editor of the Artificial Life Journal.[3] He has been the COO of Protolife, a biotechnology start-up based in Venice, Italy.
Rakstā uzskaitītas mākslīgās dzīvības problēmas, bet tas, kas katrā nozarē ir zināms un paveikts, nav atdalīts no tā, kas vēl nav zināms. Piemēram, informācijas jaunrade bioloģiskajās būtnēs (10.punkts) ir zināma, izprasta un aprakstīta daudzās publikācijās. Bet mēs vienmēr varam teikt, ka vēl viss nav izpētīts un vajaga pētīt vēl.
EmTech: Get Ready for a New Human Species
Now that we can rewrite the code of life, Darwinian evolution can't stop us, says investor Juan Enriquez., Wednesday, October 19, 2011By Emily Singer
The ability to engineer life is going to spark a revolution that will dwarf the industrial and digital revolutions, says Juan Enriquez, a writer, investor, and managing director of Excel Venture Management. Thanks to new genomics technologies, scientists have not only been able to read organisms' genomes faster than ever before, they can also write increasingly complex changes into those genomes, creating organisms with new capabilities.
Enriquez, who spoke at Technology Review's EmTech conference on Tuesday, says our newfound ability to write the code of life will profoundly change the world as we know it. Because we can engineer our environment and ourselves, humanity is moving beyond the constraints of Darwinian evolution. The result, he says, may be an entirely new species.
Enriquez is the author of the global bestseller As the Future Catches You: How Genomics & Other Forces Are Changing Your Life, Work, Health & Wealth. His most recent publication is an eBook, Homo Evolutis: A Short Tour of Our New Species.
Technology Review senior editor Emily Singer spoke with Enriquez after his talk.
TR: Why do you think there is going to be a new human species?
Juan Enriquez: The new human species is one that begins to engineer the evolution of viruses, plants, animals, and itself. As we do that, Darwin's rules get significantly bent, and sometimes even broken. By taking direct and deliberate control over our evolution, we are living in a world where we are modifying stuff according to our desires.
If you turned off the electricity in the United States, you would see millions of people die quickly, because they wouldn't have asthma medications, respirators, insulin, a whole host of things we invented to prevent people from dying. Eventually, we get to the point where evolution is guided by what we're engineering. That's a big deal. Today's plastic surgery is going to seem tame compared to what's coming.
How is this impending revolution going to shape the world?
Ninety-eight percent of data transmitted today is in a language almost no one spoke 30 years ago. We're in a similar period now. But this revolution will be more widespread because this is software that writes its own hardware.
People think this technology will just change pharma or biotech, but it's much bigger than that. For example, it's already changing the chemical industry. Forty percent of Dupont's earnings today come from the life sciences. It's going to change everything; it will change countries, who's rich and who's poor. It's going to create new ethics.
New ethics?
It will change even basic questions like sex. There used to be one way to have a baby. Now there are at least 17. We have decoupled sex from time. You can have a baby in nine months, or you can freeze sperm or a fertilized egg and implant it in 10 years or 100 years. You can create an animal from one of its cells. You can begin to alter reproductive cells. By the time you put this together, you've fundamentally changed how you reproduce and the rules for reproduction.
What does it take to make a new species?
We're beginning to see that it's an accumulation of small changes. Scientists have recently been able to compare the genomes of Neandertals and modern humans, which reveals just a .004 percent difference. Most of those changes lie in genes involved in sperm, testes, smell, and skin.
Engineering microbes alone might speciate us. When you apply sequencing technology to the microbes inhabiting the human body, it turns out to be fascinating. All of us are symbionts; we have 1,000 times more microbial cells in our bodies than human cells. You couldn't possible digest or live without the microbial cells inside your stomach. Some people have microbes that are better at absorbing calories. Diabetics have a slightly sweeter skin, which changes the microbial fauna and makes it harder for them to cauterize wounds.
One concern about human enhancement is that only some people will have access, creating an even greater economic divide. Do you think this will be the case?
In the industrial revolution, it took a lifetime to build enough industry to double the wealth of a country. In the knowledge revolution, you can build billion-dollar companies with 20 people very quickly. The implication is that you can double the wealth of a country very quickly. In Korea in 1975, people had one-fifth of the income of Mexicans, and today they have five times more. Even the poorest places can generate wealth quickly. You see this in Bangalore, China. On the flip side, you can also become irrelevant very quickly.
Scientists are on the verge of sequencing 10,000 human genomes. You point out this might highlight significant variation among our species, and that this requires some ethical consideration. Why?
The issue of [genetic variation] is a really uncomfortable question, one that for good reason, we have been avoiding since the 1930s and '40s. A lot of the research behind the eugenics movement came out of elite universities in the U.S. It was disastrously misapplied. But you do have to ask, if there are fundamental differences in species like dogs and horses and birds, is it true that there are no significant differences between humans? We are going to have an answer to that question very quickly. If we do, we need to think through an ethical, moral framework to think about questions that go way beyond science.
Avots: http://www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/38932/?nlid=nldly&nld=2011-10-19
Theory of games is simple and elegant mathematical approach for modeling human behavior. I have used it to model the decision of humanity when confronted with questions like: is global warming real or not and, is asteroid impact possible or not? When you look at the discussions flaming everywhere from Facebook to G+, you can see many confronted opinions. Using Gambit, we can make very simple strategy game confronting “Humanity” with an extinction level event. Not surprisingly, humanity would take course of action leading to salvation only if cost for such action would not exceed certain threshold. Simply put: if salvation is not too expensive, then yes, we would eventually choose a strategy which is trying to prevent such disastrous event. If the price is too high, humanity chooses simply to deny existence of possibility of such an event.
Lets start with first setup when “humanity” thinks that salvation comes under the “right price”. There are two players in this game (actually three when we take into account “chance” or “mother nature” player). One of the players is humanity (red) with 100 units value at their disposal. ELE (extinction level event) eradicates entire value and the branches are showing moves or courses of action taken by the players. Fictions “salvation company” (blue) is an entity that can “invent” solution which can prevent such event, but not for sure – let’s say that they have 50/50 chance for success. Now, in order to save the world, “humanity” has to give away certain amount of it’s value to the salvation company. If the price is 25 units (or quarter of entire population value), part of humanity would be willing to give away their possessions to the “salvation company” even under assumption that they will not be always successful in the effort to find the solution.
The flow goes from left to right: first, a threat is detected (lets say, global warming). Now, humanity can deny or seek solution. If they deny, that costs 0 and salvation company gets 0 in any case. However, there is 50% chance (or 1/2) that such event is destructive at global level and results with loss of entire property, in which cases payout for humanity is -100. If it is non destructive, payout is 0. On the average, payout for this option is -50 for humanity (given that we have chance to play such game more than once).
The other strategy emerging in this setup is to “pay” to “salvation company” a quarter of value (indicated with loss of -25). “Salvation company” gains 25 units whether successful or not. However, this branch gives lower loss in longer course of actions (remember, we are trying to play this game more than once). All in all, the game predicts two Nash equilibria (small table below) where humanity is taking two separate courses of action – one to deny and other to seek solution.

Now, here is the same game, but this time with price higher that 1/4 of value that should be given to “salvation company”. This time humanity has to give away HALF of its value in order to seek for the solution. (This is not that hard to imagine, because if fictitiously we would need to give away use of cars entirely and some other CO2 emitters, that would be pretty much as giving away half of perceived value in someones life.) Now, the decisions change dramatically. The only remaining dominant strategy is denial. That means, that even if all scientists are right about the grave future consequences of CO2 emission and global warming, humanity in its whole would not accept seeking solution as viable option. Just take a look at the simulation:

What can we conclude from this? Sooner or later we are going to be confronted with extinction level event created by us, or by chance alone. Theory of games is predicting that humanity even under such extreme conditions is not willing to give away it’s rational attitude (read: selfishness). If we leave decision to us alone, we will make grave mistake and conduct wrong decision (we deny). That is the main reason why we need good artificial intelligence right now in this age. It is not something that could just make our lives easier, artificial intelligence could literary save us from obliteration caused by our own blindness. It could be the fourth player in the game that could change the tip of the tide in our favor…
Source: http://artificialintelligencebooks.glegleme.com/post/Urgent-need-for-AI.aspx
Biological intelligence is only a transitory phenomenon
http://turingchurch.com/2012/06/03/biological-intelligence-is-only-a-transitory-phenomenon/ 
June 03, 2012 Giulio Prisco
I support the space program, and I hope to see people walking on the Moon again, and then Mars. We need to see people in space to reboot our dreaming engine. At the same time I am persuaded that, ultimately, space will be colonized by our post-biological mind children, who will leave their flesh and blood bodies behind and become cyber angels living as pure software in robotic or virtual bodies. Many astronomers and space enthusiasts share this view.
Of course, Sir Arthur C. Clarke was one of the first to see it. In 2001 — A Space Odyssey, he wrote: “And now, out among the stars, evolution was driving toward new goals. The first explorers of Earth had long since come to the limits of flesh and blood; as soon as their machines were better than their bodies, it was time to move. First their brains, and then their thoughts alone, they transferred into shining new homes of metal and of plastic.” Other science fiction writers have described a universe populated by upload civilizations, and many scientists agree:
Paul Davies, a British-born theoretical physicist, cosmologist, astrobiologist and Director of the Beyond Center for Fundamental Concepts in Science and Co-Director of the Cosmology Initiative at Arizona State University, says in his book The Eerie Silence that any aliens exploring the universe will be AI-empowered machines. Not only are machines better able to endure extended exposure to the conditions of space, but they have the potential to develop intelligence far beyond the capacity of the human brain.
“I think it very likely — in fact inevitable — that biological intelligence is only a transitory phenomenon, a fleeting phase in the evolution of the universe,” Davies writes. “If we ever encounter extraterrestrial intelligence, I believe it is overwhelmingly likely to be post-biological in nature.”
If the human race manages to redesign itself, to reduce or eliminate the risk of self-destruction, we will probably reach out to the stars and colonize other planets. But this will be done, Stephen Hawking believes, with intelligent machines based on mechanical and electronic components, rather than macromolecules, which could eventually replace DNA based life, just as DNA may have replaced an earlier form of life.
“The time window during which detectable alien intelligence is biological is very, very short,” says Seth Shostak, Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute, in Mountain View, California. “Machine intelligence — which could be durable and long-lasting far beyond the limits of a biological species — will dominate the universe.”
“NASA’s Kepler telescope is busy tracking down habitable planets around other stars. It’s likely that, within a year, it will discover other worlds that are very much like our Earth. Such planets would be obvious candidates for incubating life, and possibly intelligent life. But the incubator is not necessarily where intelligence will stay. It will, I think, leave the cradle rather quickly,” says Shostak. “In other words, biological intelligence might be only a stepping stone to something far cleverer, something that is both longer-lived and more widespread than its protoplasmic precursors.”
Shostak argues that the time between aliens developing radio technology and artificial intelligence (AI) would be short. Writing in Acta Astronautica, he says that the odds favour detecting such alien AI rather than biological life. He makes the point that while evolution can take a large amount of time to develop beings capable of communicating beyond their own planet, technology would already be advancing fast enough to eclipse the species that wrought it.
“If you look at the timescales for the development of technology, at some point you invent radio and then you go on the air and then we have a chance of finding you,” he told BBC News.
“But within a few hundred years of inventing radio – at least if we’re any example – you invent thinking machines; we’re probably going to do that in this century. So you’ve invented your successors and only for a few hundred years are you… a ‘biological’ intelligence.”
From a probability point of view, if such thinking machines ever evolved, we would be more likely to spot signals from them than from the “biological” life that invented them.
“Biologically based technological civilization… is a fleeting phenomenon limited to a few thousand years, and exists in the universe in the proportion of one thousand to one billion, so that only one in a million civilizations are biological,” says former NASA Chief Historian Steven J. Dick.
If extraterrestrial intelligence exists, Stephen Dick concludes in an article in the International Journal of Astrobiology, it has probably evolved beyond biology to an advanced form of artificial intelligence that is the product of million or billions of years of technological and cultural evolution similar to the civilizations Arthur C Clarke envisioned that created the Tycho Monoliths in 2001 — A Space Odyssey. In a post-biological universe machines are the dominant form of intelligence.
If these scientists are right, and I think they are, the most advanced civilizations in the universe have transcended biology and moved on to a post-biological phase of their evolution. If we want to become an advanced civilization and colonize the stars, this is what we must do.
Hugo de Garis, author of The Artilect War, agrees that our cosmic destiny is to transcend biology and build/become “Artilects”, but thinks that flesh-and-blood humans (the “Terrans”) will resist and wage bloody wars against those who want to move on (the “Cosmists”). De Garis fears that “species dominance” wars may result in billions of deaths, and perhaps he is right — Ted Kaczynski was the first Terran, and other violent Terrans are emerging.
To avoid this, I think we should persuade as many people as possible to embrace our post-biological future with open arms as the next, necessary phase of our evolution. There is nothing to fear, and a universe to gain. Terrans fear that Artilects will destroy us, but they cannot destroy us because they will be us. The child that I used to be was not destroyed by the adult that I have become: he is still here, inside my current self.
Dick Pelletier
Positive Futurist
Posted: Sep 15, 2012
What can we expect over the next ninety years? If we track expected progress in today’s science and technologies, we can create a plausible scenario of how our twenty-first century could unfold.
The following timeline reveals achievements and events that could become reality as we move through this high-tech twenty-first century future.
More: http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/pelletier20120915
http://www.gf2045.com/
Mūsu laikmeta problēma
Viena no mūsu jaunatnes lielākajām problēmām ir derīgas informācijas iegūšana. Informācija - šis vārds mūsu sabiedrībā kļuvis populārs un tiek lietots vietā un nevietā. Sakaru nozarē par informāciju sauc derīgo signālu, bet nederīgo, traucējošo - par troksni. Informācijas atdalīšanu no trokšņa sauc par filtrēšanu.
Ja pirms 100 gadiem jaunā zinātkārā cilvēka vienīgā literatūra bija Lauksaimnieka kalendārs, žurnāls 'Atpūta', Kurts-Māleres romāni vai Bībele, par šodienu mēdz teikt, ka mēs dzīvojam informācijas pārbagātības laikmetā. Augstāk dotās definīcijas skatījumā tas tā nav: mēs dzīvojam trokšņa laikmetā. Signālu ir daudz, derīgas informācijas - aptuveni desmit reizes mazāk, un to grūti atrast.
"90% from published in science is trash". Stephen Hawking, 'The Universe in a Nutshell'. (šī grāmata tulkota arī latviešu valodā - 'Universs rieksta čaumalā').
Daudzu jauno un zinātkāro cilvēku problēma šodien ir - kā atrast derīgas informācijas avotus. Šī interneta lapa dod lasītājam norādes, kur atrast materiālus, kurus lieto cilvēki, kas uzbūvēja datorus, mobilos tālruņus un kosmosa kuģus, izveidoja internetu un šodien strādā pie citām problēmām. Visa pamatā ir viena prasība - mēs lietojam tikai to, ko var neierobežoti daudzas reizes pārbaudīt un pierādīt. Angliski to saka - everything based on scientific evidence.
Noam Chomsky on Where Artificial Intelligence Went Wrong
Nov 1 2012, 2:22 PM ET
An extended conversation with the legendary linguist,
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/11/noam-chomsky-on-where-artificial-intelligence-went-wrong/261637/?single_page=true
If one were to rank a list of civilization's greatest and most elusive intellectual challenges, the problem of "decoding" ourselves -- understanding the inner workings of our minds and our brains, and how the architecture of these elements is encoded in our genome -- would surely be at the top. Yet the diverse fields that took on this challenge, from philosophy and psychology to computer science and neuroscience, have been fraught with disagreement about the right approach.
In 1956, the computer scientist John McCarthy coined the term "Artificial Intelligence" (AI) to describe the study of intelligence by implementing its essential features on a computer. Instantiating an intelligent system using man-made hardware, rather than our own "biological hardware" of cells and tissues, would show ultimate understanding, and have obvious practical applications in the creation of intelligent devices or even robots.
Some of McCarthy's colleagues in neighboring departments, however, were more interested in how intelligence is implemented in humans (and other animals) first. Noam Chomsky and others worked on what became cognitive science, a field aimed at uncovering the mental representations and rules that underlie our perceptual and cognitive abilities. Chomsky and his colleagues had to overthrow the then-dominant paradigm of behaviorism, championed by Harvard psychologist B.F. Skinner, where animal behavior was reduced to a simple set of associations between an action and its subsequent reward or punishment. The undoing of Skinner's grip on psychology is commonly marked by Chomsky's 1967 critical review of Skinner's book Verbal Behavior, a book in which Skinner attempted to explain linguistic ability using behaviorist principles.
Skinner's approach stressed the historical associations between a stimulus and the animal's response -- an approach easily framed as a kind of empirical statistical analysis, predicting the future as a function of the past. Chomsky's conception of language, on the other hand, stressed the complexity of internal representations, encoded in the genome, and their maturation in light of the right data into a sophisticated computational system, one that cannot be usefully broken down into a set of associations. Behaviorist principles of associations could not explain the richness of linguistic knowledge, our endlessly creative use of it, or how quickly children acquire it with only minimal and imperfect exposure to language presented by their environment. The "language faculty," as Chomsky referred to it, was part of the organism's genetic endowment, much like the visual system, the immune system and the circulatory system, and we ought to approach it just as we approach these other more down-to-earth biological systems.
The approach taken by Chomsky and Marr toward understanding how our minds achieve what they do is as different as can be from behaviorism. The emphasis here is on the internal structure of the system that enables it to perform a task, rather than on external association between past behavior of the system and the environment. The goal is to dig into the "black box" that drives the system and describe its inner workings, much like how a computer scientist would explain how a cleverly designed piece of software works and how it can be executed on a desktop computer.
Chomsky critiqued the field of AI for adopting an approach reminiscent of behaviorism, except in more modern, computationally sophisticated form. Chomsky argued that the field's heavy use of statistical techniques to pick regularities in masses of data is unlikely to yield the explanatory insight that science ought to offer. For Chomsky, the "new AI" -- focused on using statistical learning techniques to better mine and predict data -- is unlikely to yield general principles about the nature of intelligent beings or about cognition.
Chomsky acknowledged that the statistical approach might have practical value, just as in the example of a useful search engine, and is enabled by the advent of fast computers capable of processing massive data. But as far as a science goes, Chomsky would argue it is inadequate, or more harshly, kind of shallow. We wouldn't have taught the computer much about what the phrase "physicist Sir Isaac Newton" really means, even if we can build a search engine that returns sensible hits to users who type the phrase in.
The greatest progress is in the sciences that study the simplest systems. So take, say physics -- greatest progress there. But one of the reasons is that the physicists have an advantage that no other branch of sciences has. If something gets too complicated, they hand it to someone else. If a molecule is too big, you give it to the chemists. The chemists, for them, if the molecule is too big or the system gets too big, you give it to the biologists. And if it gets too big for them, they give it to the psychologists, and finally it ends up in the hands of the literary critic, and so on.
...neuroscience for the last couple hundred years has been on the wrong track. ... neuroscience developed kind of enthralled to associationism and related views of the way humans and animals work. And as a result they've been looking for things that have the properties of associationist psychology.
So if you want to study, say, the neurology of an ant, you ask what does the ant do? It turns out the ants do pretty complicated things, like path integration, for example. If you look at bees, bee navigation involves quite complicated computations, involving position of the sun, and so on and so forth. But in general ... if you take a look at animal cognition, human too, it's computational systems. Therefore, you want to look the units of computation. Think about a Turing machine, say, which is the simplest form of computation, you have to find units that have properties like "read", "write" and "address." That's the minimal computational unit, so you got to look in the brain for those. You're never going to find them if you look for strengthening of synaptic connections or field properties, and so on. You've got to start by looking for what's there and what's working.
So when you're studying vision, you first ask what kind of computational tasks is the visual system carrying out. And then you look for an algorithm that might carry out those computations and finally you search for mechanisms of the kind that would make the algorithm work. Otherwise, you may never find anything. There are many examples of this, even in the hard sciences, but certainly in the soft sciences. People tend to study what you know how to study, I mean that makes sense. You have certain experimental techniques, you have certain level of understanding, you try to push the envelope -- which is okay, I mean, it's not a criticism, but people do what you can do. On the other hand, it's worth thinking whether you're aiming in the right direction.
Well, there are much simpler questions. Like here at MIT, there's been an interdisciplinary program on the nematode C. elegans for decades, and as far as I understand, even with this miniscule animal, where you know the wiring diagram, I think there's 800 neurons or something ...Still, you can't predict what the thing [C. elegans nematode] is going to do. Maybe because you're looking in the wrong place.
So for example, take an extreme case, suppose that somebody says he wants to eliminate the physics department and do it the right way. The "right" way is to take endless numbers of videotapes of what's happening outside the video, and feed them into the biggest and fastest computer, gigabytes of data, and do complex statistical analysis -- you know, Bayesian this and that [Editor's note: A modern approach to analysis of data which makes heavy use of probability theory.] -- and you'll get some kind of prediction about what's gonna happen outside the window next. In fact, you get a much better prediction than the physics department will ever give. Well, if success is defined as getting a fair approximation to a mass of chaotic unanalyzed data, then it's way better to do it this way than to do it the way the physicists do, you know, no thought experiments about frictionless planes and so on and so forth. But you won't get the kind of understanding that the sciences have always been aimed at -- what you'll get at is an approximation to what's happening.
And that's done all over the place. Suppose you want to predict tomorrow's weather. One way to do it is okay I'll get my statistical priors, if you like, there's a high probability that tomorrow's weather here will be the same as it was yesterday in Cleveland, so I'll stick that in, and where the sun is will have some effect, so I'll stick that in, and you get a bunch of assumptions like that, you run the experiment, you look at it over and over again, you correct it by Bayesian methods, you get better priors. You get a pretty good approximation of what tomorrow's weather is going to be. That's not what meteorologists do -- they want to understand how it's working. And these are just two different concepts of what success means, of what achievement is. In my own field, language fields, it's all over the place. Like computational cognitive science applied to language, the concept of success that's used is virtually always this. So if you get more and more data, and better and better statistics, you can get a better and better approximation to some immense corpus of text, like everything in The Wall Street Journal archives -- but you learn nothing about the language.
A very different approach, which I think is the right approach, is to try to see if you can understand what the fundamental principles are that deal with the core properties, and recognize that in the actual usage, there's going to be a thousand other variables intervening -- kind of like what's happening outside the window, and you'll sort of tack those on later on if you want better approximations, that's a different approach. These are just two different concepts of science. The second one is what science has been since Galileo, that's modern science. The approximating unanalyzed data kind is sort of a new approach, not totally, there's things like it in the past. It's basically a new approach that has been accelerated by the existence of massive memories, very rapid processing, which enables you to do things like this that you couldn't have done by hand. But I think, myself, that it is leading subjects like computational cognitive science into a direction of maybe some practical applicability...
...But away from understanding. Yeah, maybe some effective engineering. And it's kind of interesting to see what happened to engineering. So like when I got to MIT, it was 1950s, this was an engineering school. There was a very good math department, physics department, but they were service departments. They were teaching the engineers tricks they could use. The electrical engineering department, you learned how to build a circuit. Well if you went to MIT in the 1960s, or now, it's completely different. No matter what engineering field you're in, you learn the same basic science and mathematics. And then maybe you learn a little bit about how to apply it. But that's a very different approach. And it resulted maybe from the fact that really for the first time in history, the basic sciences, like physics, had something really to tell engineers. And besides, technologies began to change very fast, so not very much point in learning the technologies of today if it's going to be different 10 years from now. So you have to learn the fundamental science that's going to be applicable to whatever comes along next. And the same thing pretty much happened in medicine. So in the past century, again for the first time, biology had something serious to tell to the practice of medicine, so you had to understand biology if you want to be a doctor, and technologies again will change. Well, I think that's the kind of transition from something like an art, that you learn how to practice -- an analog would be trying to match some data that you don't understand, in some fashion, maybe building something that will work -- to science, what happened in the modern period, roughly Galilean science.
Then you look for the neurophysiology, and see if you can find something there that carries out these computations. I think it's the same in language, the same in studying our arithmetical capacity, planning, almost anything you look at. Just trying to deal with the unanalyzed chaotic data is unlikely to get you anywhere, just like as it wouldn't have gotten Galileo anywhere.
But that's, sure, that's the way science works. Same with chemistry. Chemistry, until my childhood, not that long ago, was regarded as a calculating device. Because you couldn't reduce to physics. So it's just some way of calculating the result of experiments. The Bohr atom was treated that way. It's the way of calculating the results of experiments but it can't be real science, because you can't reduce it to physics, which incidentally turned out to be true, you couldn't reduce it to physics because physics was wrong. When quantum physics came along, you could unify it with virtually unchanged chemistry. So the project of reduction was just the wrong project. The right project was to see how these two ways of looking at the world could be unified. And it turned out to be a surprise -- they were unified by radically changing the underlying science. That could very well be the case with say, psychology and neuroscience. I mean, neuroscience is nowhere near as advanced as physics was a century ago.
But that's a fundamentally different activity from me adding up small numbers in my head, which surely does have some kind of algorithm.
Chomsky: Not necessarily. There's an algorithm for the process in both cases. But there's no algorithm for the system itself, it's kind of a category mistake. The internal system that you have -- for that, the question of process doesn't arise. But for your using that internal system, it arises, and you may carry out multiplications all kinds of ways. Like maybe when you add 7 and 6, let's say, one algorithm is to say "I'll see how much it takes to get to 10" -- it takes 3, and now I've got 4 left, so I gotta go from 10 and add 4, I get 14. That's an algorithm for adding -- it's actually one I was taught in kindergarten. That's one way to add.
But there are other ways to add -- there's no kind of right algorithm. These are algorithms for carrying out the process the cognitive system that's in your head. And for that system, you don't ask about algorithms. You can ask about the computational level, you can ask about the mechanism level. But the algorithm level doesn't exist for that system. It's the same with language. Language is kind of like the arithmetical capacity. There's some system in there that determines the sound and meaning of an infinite array of possible sentences. But there's no question about what the algorithm is. Like there's no question about what a formal system of arithmetic tells you about proving theorems.
If you ask, what is the computational problem that the brain is solving, we have kind of an answer, it's sort of like a computer. But if you ask, what is the computational problem that's being solved by the lung, that's very difficult to even think -- it's not obviously an information-processing kind of problem.
Chomsky: No, but there's no reason to assume that all of biology is computational. There may be reasons to assume that cognition is. And in fact Gallistel is not saying that everything is in the body ought to be studied by finding read/write/address units.
So what would you think would be an adequate theory that is explanatory, rather than just predicting data, the statistical way, what would be an adequate theory of these systems that are not computing systems -- can we even understand them?
Chomsky: Sure. You can understand a lot about say, what makes an embryo turn into a chicken rather than a mouse, let's say. It's a very intricate system, involves all kinds of chemical interactions, all sorts of other things. Even the nematode, it's by no means obviously -- in fact there are reports from the study here -- that it's all just a matter of a neural net. You have to look into complex chemical interactions that take place in the brain, in the nervous system. You have to look into each system on its own. These chemical interactions might not be related to how your arithmetical capacity works -- probably aren't. But they might very well be related to whether you decide to raise your arm or lower it.
Galvenā doma: lai mašīnā izveidotu inteliģenci, nepietiks, ka iemācisim to izveidot ievadītajiem datiem, dotajai situācijai piemērotu, atbilstošu rīcību. Vēl vajadzēs, līdzīgi kā to dara mūsu smadzenes, saprast. Tas nozīmē izveidot mašīnā tūkstošiem ārējās pasaules situācijām atbilstošus modeļus, kuri tiks lietoti neapzināti, bet lielākajai daļai no kuriem apziņa var piekļūt un aprakstīt to darbību kādā citiem saprotamā valodā.
Ja mašīna būs iemācīta, piemēram, saskaitīt divus skaitļus, tad pēc neilga laika tā dos pareizas atbildes jebkuriem diviem iepriekšējā pieredzē esošiem skaitļiem. Bet, ja tajā nebūs izveidots universāls saskaitīšanas algoritms (modelis), tā nevarēs saskaitīt tādus divus skaitļus, kuri apmācības laikā nebija tās ieejā.
Līdzīgi ir ar valodu. Mašīnas pilnīgi valodu iemācisies tikai tad, kad katram vārdam tās atmiņā būs piesaistīts atbilstošs jēdziens, kas saturēs mašīnas-robota līdzšinējās dzīves vizuālo, dzirdes, taustes, ķermeņa sajūtu, kustību un emociju pieredzi. I.V.
Raksts par to, kā katram vārdam apziņā atbilst jedziens, kas satur visu indivīda līdzšinējo dzīves pieredzi:
'Embodied Cognition: Our Inner Imaginings of the World around Us Make Us Who We Are'
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=embodied-cognition-our-inner-imaginings
no grāmatas "Louder Than Words: The New Science of How the Mind Makes Meaning" by Benjamin K. Bergen (Basic Books, 2012)
Artificial Intelligence Is Lost in the Woods
Technology Rewiev Published by MIT, July 2007 By Yale University professor David Gelernter
A conscious mind will never be built out of software.
Artificial intelligence has been obsessed with several questions from the start: Can we build a mind out of software? If not, why not? If so, what kind of mind are we talking about? A conscious mind? Or an unconscious intelligence that seems to think but experiences nothing and has no inner mental life? These questions are central to our view of computers and how far they can go, of computation and its ultimate meaning--and of the mind and how it works.
They are deep questions with practical implications. AI researchers have long maintained that the mind provides good guidance as we approach subtle, tricky, or deep computing problems. Software today can cope with only a smattering of the information-processing problems that our minds handle routinely--when we recognize faces or pick elements out of large groups based on visual cues, use common sense, understand the nuances of natural language, or recognize what makes a musical cadence final or a joke funny or one movie better than another. AI offers to figure out how thought works and to make that knowledge available to software designers.
It even offers to deepen our understanding of the mind itself. Questions about software and the mind are central to cognitive science and philosophy. Few problems are more far-reaching or have more implications for our fundamental view of ourselves.
I believe it is hugely unlikely, though not impossible, that a conscious mind will ever be built out of software. Even if it could be, the result (I will argue) would be fairly useless in itself. But an unconscious simulated intelligence certainly could be built out of software--and might be useful. Unfortunately, AI, cognitive science, and philosophy of mind are nowhere near knowing how to build one. They are missing the most important fact about thought: the "cognitive continuum" that connects the seemingly unconnected puzzle pieces of thinking (for example analytical thought, common sense, analogical thought, free association, creativity, hallucination). The cognitive continuum explains how all these reflect different values of one quantity or parameter that I will call "mental focus" or "concentration"--which changes over the course of a day and a lifetime.
Without this cognitive continuum, AI has no comprehensive view of thought: it tends to ignore some thought modes (such as free association and dreaming), is uncertain how to integrate emotion and thought, and has made strikingly little progress in understanding analogies--which seem to underlie creativity.
More: http://www.bobblum.com/ESSAYS/NEUROPSYCH/Gelernter-AI-Lost-Tech-Review-July-2007.htm
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How similar will machine intelligence be to human intelligence? (credit: A. Sandberg & N. Bostrom/Future of Humanity Institute)
Machines will achieve human-level intelligence by 2028 (median estimate: 10% chance), by 2050 (median estimate: 50% chance), or by 2150 (median estimate: 90% chance), according to an informal poll at the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) Winter Intelligence conference on machine intelligence in January.
“Human‐level machine intelligence, whether due to a de novo AGI (artificial general intelligence) or biologically inspired/emulated systems, has a macroscopic probability to occurring mid‐century,” the report authors, Dr. Anders Sandberg and Dr. Nick Bostrom, both researchers at FHI, found.
“This development is more likely to occur from a large organization than as a smaller project. The consequences might be potentially catastrophic, but there is great disagreement and uncertainty about this — radically positive outcomes are also possible.”
Other findings:
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Industry, academia and the military are the types of organizations most likely to first develop a human‐level machine intelligence.
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The response to “How positive or negative are the ultimate consequences of the creation of a human‐level (and beyond human‐level) machine intelligence likely to be?” were bimodal, with more weight given to extremely good and extremely bad outcomes.
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Of the 32 responses to “How similar will the first human‐level machine intelligence be to the human brain?,” 8 thought “very biologically inspired machine intelligence” the most likely, 12 thought “brain‐inspired AGI” and 12 thought “entirely de novo AGI” was the most likely.
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Most participants were only mildly confident of an eventual win by IBM’s Watson over human contestants in the “Jeopardy!” contest.
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Probability density of human-level AI by date -- the blue represents skew Gaussian fits, the red represents triangular fits; previous dates are artifacts (credit: Anders Sandberg)
“This survey was merely an informal polling of an already self‐selected group, so the results should be taken with a large grain of salt,” the authors advise. “The small number of responses, the presence of visiting groups with presumably correlated views, the simple survey design and the limitations of the questionnaire all contribute to make this of limited reliability and validity.”
“While the validity is questionable, the results are consistent with earlier surveys,” Sandberg told KurzweilAI. “The kind of people who respond to this tend to think mid-century human-level AI is fairly plausible, with a tail towards the far future.Opinions on the overall effect were not divided but bimodal — it will likely be really good or really bad, not something in between.”
Brent Allsop, a Senior Software Engineer at 3M, has started a “Human Level AI Milestone?” Canonizer (consensus building open survey system) to encourage public participation in this interesting question in the survey: “Can you think of any milestone such that if it were ever reached you would expect human‐level machine intelligence to be developed within five years thereafter?”
Ref.: Sandberg, A. and Bostrom, N. (2011): Machine Intelligence Survey, Technical Report
#2011‐1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1‐12. URL: www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2011‐1.pdf